Table of
Contents

Director's Report

Trustee News

Centennial Celebrations

Research and Education News

Leaving a Legacy

Building the Future

Meeting the Challenge

Honor Roll
of Donors

Shorelines

RPI Workshop Examines Hurricane Frequency and Intensity

Hurricane Fabian approaches Bermuda (+), bringing winds of up to 150 mph

On October 3, scientists and insurers met in Bermuda to present and discuss the results of their research into understanding and predicting conditions that control the frequency and intensity of hurricane landfall. The workshop was sponsored and organized by BBSR's Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI), a science-business partnership whose goal is to help businesses worldwide better understand, assess and manage climate-related risks.

With the extensive and costly damage caused by Hurricane Fabian in Bermuda, and the devastating effects of Isabel on the United States shortly after, the 2003 hurricane season seems destined to be memorable. But do the big hits in this season really make it significantly different from previous years?

Dr. Rick Murnane, the science program manager of RPI, says it is difficult to provide a definitive answer. The research presented at the October RPI workshop aims to provide insights that will allow scientists to eventually answer questions like: What signals in the atmosphere and ocean can be detected and used to differentiate conditions in different years? Can we find precursors that indicate whether a hurricane season will result in more significant landfalls than other years? Do the recent hurricane strikes imply that the probability of hurricane landfall is changing? The factors controlling a hurricane's formation, intensity and path need to be considered to answer these questions. A number of conditions must be met before a hurricane can develop, and even then, a hurricane may not form.

To improve scientists' ability to forecast upcoming hurricane seasons, long records of sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric pressures, and compilations of hurricane track, intensity and landfall must be developed. Much of the RPI-supported research is targeted toward extending the historical record of landfall, track and intensity. Additional research is aimed at understanding atmospheric conditions that are important for controlling hurricanes. The scientists participating in the RPI workshop came from all over the world and received financial support for their research from RPI's sponsors.

Mangrove Restoration to Help Reduce Shoreline Erosion

Student Brad Collins (right), Dr. Joanna Pitt (center) and technician Matthew Strong begin the planting experiment

Signs of a new BBSR research project are sprouting up along the shores of Ferry Reach. The clusters of PVC pipes at the water's edge are part of a mangrove planting experiment by BBSR's Benthic Ecology Research Program.

The storm surge from Hurricane Fabian in September eroded the edges of the reclaimed land along Kindley Field Road. This erosion is noticeably less severe in the vicinity of the few mangrove trees in the area. This is because mangroves have extensive root systems that help stabilize the shoreline, says BBSR scientist Dr. Joanna Pitt . With the aim of reducing further erosion and flooding in the park area, Dr. Pitt is working with BBSR staff and students to try different methods of getting mangroves to grow in several locations along the shore.

Some of the seeds have been planted directly in the sand, while others have been planted inside PVC pipes that will help to protect them as they grow. Since mangrove seeds are already partially developed when planted, the research team hopes to see signs of seedling growth by the end of November. However, it will be at least two or three years before the seedlings have grown large enough to determine whether the project is a success.

Another important benefit of restoring mangroves along the island's shores is that they provide a vital nursery habitat for juvenile fishes. Since the number of mangrove trees in Bermuda has been greatly reduced over the last 100 years, encouraging their growth is also important for ecological reasons.

"Ferry Reach is an excellent location for testing planting methods, and we hope members of the public will stop by to watch our progress," says Dr. Pitt. "If this stage of the project is a success, it could be the start of an island-wide community effort to restore mangroves."

Planning for any expanded planting along Ferry Reach would be conducted in consultation with the Parks Department, and would include access points for swimmers and viewing space near the boat ramp to ensure recreational activities in the park would not be impacted.